Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 9.391124e-05 0.000112 0.000130 0.000152 0.000175 0.000200 0.000229
2024-10-20 7.047489e-05 0.000093 0.000119 0.000150 0.000186 0.000225 0.000272
2024-10-27 6.040749e-05 0.000086 0.000117 0.000154 0.000199 0.000249 0.000310
2024-11-03 4.785928e-05 0.000075 0.000108 0.000150 0.000202 0.000263 0.000337
2024-11-10 4.023609e-05 0.000068 0.000103 0.000150 0.000208 0.000277 0.000362
2024-11-17 3.269922e-05 0.000060 0.000097 0.000147 0.000211 0.000288 0.000386
2024-11-24 2.896933e-05 0.000057 0.000096 0.000150 0.000221 0.000307 0.000417
2024-12-01 2.466691e-05 0.000053 0.000093 0.000151 0.000227 0.000322 0.000444
2024-12-08 1.962764e-05 0.000046 0.000086 0.000146 0.000226 0.000326 0.000457
2024-12-15 1.657426e-05 0.000043 0.000084 0.000146 0.000231 0.000339 0.000481
2024-12-22 1.377229e-05 0.000039 0.000080 0.000144 0.000234 0.000349 0.000501
2024-12-29 1.209696e-05 0.000037 0.000080 0.000147 0.000242 0.000365 0.000530
2025-01-05 9.660832e-06 0.000034 0.000076 0.000146 0.000246 0.000377 0.000554
2025-01-12 7.225345e-06 0.000029 0.000071 0.000142 0.000246 0.000385 0.000573
2025-01-19 6.473881e-06 0.000029 0.000073 0.000148 0.000259 0.000408 0.000612
2025-01-26 4.551892e-06 0.000025 0.000067 0.000143 0.000257 0.000412 0.000625
2025-02-02 3.570622e-06 0.000023 0.000066 0.000143 0.000262 0.000425 0.000652
2025-02-09 2.443692e-06 0.000020 0.000061 0.000139 0.000262 0.000431 0.000668
2025-02-16 2.060275e-06 0.000019 0.000062 0.000143 0.000272 0.000451 0.000703
2025-02-23 1.496447e-06 0.000018 0.000060 0.000143 0.000276 0.000463 0.000728
2025-03-02 8.732267e-07 0.000015 0.000056 0.000139 0.000274 0.000466 0.000739
2025-03-09 5.651646e-07 0.000014 0.000054 0.000138 0.000278 0.000477 0.000763
2025-03-16 3.314381e-07 0.000012 0.000052 0.000137 0.000281 0.000487 0.000784